Projection of China’s future runoff based on the CMIP6 mid-high warming scenarios

The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) proposes new shared pathways (SSPs) that incorporate socioeconomic development with more comprehensive and scientific experimental designs; however, few studies have been performed on the projection of future multibasin hydrological changes in China based CMIP6 models. In this paper, we use Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method (EDCDFm) to perform downscaling bias correction daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature for six models historical gridded data from high-resolution Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). We bias-corrected mean wind speed drive variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, study multiyear average annual evapotranspiration total runoff depth relative baseline period (1985–2014) Chinese mainland, basins grid scales 21st century under SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios. shows VIC model accurately simulates major basins; accuracy improves substantially after correction; multimodel-mean evapotranspiration, mainland each basin increase near (2020–2049) far (2070–2099) CMIP6-based results paper can provide a strong reference extreme event prevention, water resource utilization management century.